Insurable Interest Canadian Insurance Blog

Just months after setting a 2024 target for the S&P 500 Index, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists have boosted their forecast for a second time, reflecting Wall Street’s optimistic outlook for earnings. “Increased profit estimates are the driver of the revision,” a team led by David Kostin wrote in a note to clients dated Friday. The 12-month forward earnings expectations are at a record high for the U.S. stock index after forecasts bottomed out a year ago. Kostin now sees the S&P 500 gaining to 5,200 by the end of this year, implying a 3.9% rise from Friday’s close, raising his forecast from the 5,100 level he predicted in mid-December. He initially projected in November that the S&P 500 would hit 4,700 by the end of this year, but the gauge has already eclipsed the significant 5,000 milestone this month. Goldman’s 5,200 price target for the S&P 500 in 2024 is now among the highest on Wall Street, joining the ranks of bulls including Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors and Oppenheimer Asset Management chief strategist John Stoltzfus, who both hold a similar year-end outlook. The firm’s strategists upgraded their earnings-per-share forecast for the year to $241 and $256 in...

What You Need to Know A new analysis by the Cato Institute’s Romina Boccia points out some stark differences between the retirement safety nets in the U.S. and the U.K. Most striking, wealthy people in the U.S. get far more back from Social Security than their European peers. A reduction in benefits for higher earners, while painful, is one of few viable solutions, Boccia argues. The shaky financial position of the U.S. Social Security system is a major problem facing the federal government and workers who expect to rely on the program to avoid poverty in retirement, but near-universal agreement about the importance of Social Security doesn’t mean finding a solution is an easy matter. As Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the libertarian Cato Institute, wrote in a recent analysis posted to her Debt Dispatch blog, U.S. legislators’ procrastination has allowed the Social Security system to run into the red with a $120 billion annual cash-flow deficit and a $23 trillion long-term unfunded obligation. Simply put, tough actions are going to be needed in the years ahead to “stop the bleeding,” Boccia warns, and she makes the case that raising taxes on workers isn’t the best approach...

The judge already held the former president liable for fraud ahead of the trial, and ordered the cancellation of his business certificates, putting at risk his future control of the sprawling real estate empire. In his order Friday, the judge modified his September order, saying he would allow an independent compliance officer to renew the cancellation in consultation with the outside monitor “based on substantial evidence.” The order was temporarily put on hold in October by an appeals court while Trump challenged it. More Details Engoron also ordered that Barbara Jones, a former federal judge he appointed in 2022 to serve as an independent monitor overseeing Trump’s company, continue in her role for at least three more years and directed Jones to submit a report to him about “enhanced monitorship” over the company within 30 days. The Trumps have already complained about Jones, rejecting her post-trial findings of continued financial discrepancies at the Trump Organization. The defense lawyers responded in a Jan. 29 letter to Engoron, disputing Jones’ findings and accusing her of trying to enrich herself by extending her appointment. The monitor has already received more than $2.6 million in fees for her work, the Trumps said in the...

What You Need to Know Financial fraud is often perpetrated by someone the victim knows, like a romantic partner. Watch for recurring signs of cash flow problems, like declined credit cards or asking to borrow money. Ecourage clients to use the “ABCD test” to ensure financial compatibility in a long-term relationship. It feels like every day there’s a new documentary or expose about innocent people falling victim to predators that make off with thousands and sometimes millions of dollars. As these stories often highlight, it’s easier than it may seem to become a victim of financial fraud. Many frauds are perpetrated by someone close to the victim, like a romantic partner. Transferring money to someone you trust, blindly signing documents — these are all ways that average people end up in extraordinary situations and are probably things that everyone has done. Talking about money makes many people uncomfortable, but turning a blind eye to financial discussions can have significant consequences that range from overspending and not saving enough money to more sinister situations with legal involvement. As a financial advisor, I’ve witnessed this behavior on several occasions, and it never gets easier. Fortunately, though, there are patterns to look for. A...