Typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is expected to be the highest this year since 2015, according to commercial forecaster Tropical Storm Risk.
The projection for 2026 is 25% above the historical average, driven by an emerging El Niño and stronger-than-normal westerly winds, the London-based group said in its first outlook for the season published this week. It forecast 18 typhoons forming, of which 11 will be intense, higher than the 10-year average of 14.2 and 8.4, respectively.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is also predicting an above-normal number of tropical storms in the Northwest Pacific this summer. In contrast, the Atlantic Ocean is expected to see a relatively quiet storm season — though a lower number of hurricanes can still wreak havoc on infrastructure.
The outlook comes after a below-average 2025 season, with typhoon activity roughly 35% below the historical average, according to Tropical Storm Risk. Nevertheless, it still saw powerful storms like Typhoon Ragasa, which lashed the Philippines, Taiwan and Hong Kong, causing extensive damage and dozens of fatalities.
Asia’s typhoon season typically runs from June to October, though the destructive storms can also form in other months. Typhoons, known as hurricanes in other basins, are the most powerful systems within a family known as tropical cyclones.
Photograph: The 2026 outlook comes after a below-average 2025 season, when typhoon activity was roughly 35% below the historical average. Photo credit: Thibaud Moritz/AFP/Getty Images
Topics Trends Catastrophe Natural Disasters