COVID-19 Death Benefit Claims Could Hit $160B, Moody’s Says
U.S. life insurance death benefit claims from COVID-19 could range anywhere from $8 billion to $160 billion, Moody’s Investors Service said in a new report. However, if the total number of deaths remains within the credit rating agency’s projections, the uptick should represent a modest decline in capital from death benefits. Moody’s base case scenario looks at deaths from infection rates with 2% at the low end and 40% as an extreme stress scenario, while 10% is the high end base case. A 1% infection fatality rate is assumed, except for group policies, which tend to have exposure to working age individuals and therefore have lower mortality rates. While life reinsurers are the most exposed to increased death benefits, the impact to capital levels from COVID-19-related deaths should be modest for direct writers rated by Moody’s. Direct writers estimated pretax losses do not exceed 10% in capital even in the high end base case scenario and do not exceed 40% of capital in the severe scenario. Based on the current success with social distancing, Moody’s noted it is possible that death claims come in below their low base case scenario. “For the U.S. life insurance industry we are projecting $8...