Equity markets, macro indicators playing tug of war
Martha Porado | December 13, 2019 Heading into 2020, institutional investors are eyeing the disconnect between gloomy macroeconomic indicators and strong equity market performance. Leading indications in both North American and European economies have been trending down all year, with global gross domestic product growth forecasts in a slump, said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell, during a webinar on Dec. 11. However, there’s a silver lining, he said. With the exception of the 2008 financial crisis, leading indicators haven’t fallen much below their current levels in the past 20 years, which suggests, from a technical perspective, this could be the bottom for negative sentiment. “There’s a possibility, based on history, that numbers will start to exceed low expectations. And, in fact, we are seeing that.” Read: The changing landscape of public and private equity investing The optimism stems from an easing of financial conditions, said Young. Early in 2019, the U.S. Federal Reserve pivoted away from its tightening cycle, which unleashed a fair bit of risk appetite. “They thought that perhaps they’d overdone it and trade was a bigger global macroeconomic risk than they’d thought and they had to reverse course.” A number of other global central banks have joined the...