What shape might economic recovery take?
Martha Porado | May 20, 2020 With some jurisdictions gently reducing coronavirus-imposed restrictions, institutional investors are beginning to lay out possible scenarios for economic recovery. The terms V- and U-shaped recovery, along with arguments over which is more likely, have swirled throughout the past few months as economies around the world shut down huge swathes of their normal activities. Alessio de Longis, senior portfolio manager on Invesco’s investment solutions team, isn’t thinking in terms of shapes, but if he were, his firm’s base case scenario would look more like a ‘W.’ “It’s reasonable in our minds to accept phases of, let’s say, a three to six month period where it will look like a recovery and then you get another setback, whether driven by market sentiment or driven by actual developments in the economy, such as renewed shutdowns, renewed quarantine,” he says. Read: Dividend opportunities for institutional investors amid coronavirus crisis Preferring to delineate scenarios as base, bull and bear, he notes that how markets fare will depend significantly on progress in the medical world — a very unpredictable situation investors aren’t used to analyzing. “We’re used to developing scenarios based on economic developments. In this case this is what the challenge is, because we’re...