Delay Social Security, Invest More or Buy an Annuity: What’s Best for Retirement Income?
Blanchett shows that — as expected — the necessary breakeven returns for the early claiming strategy generally increase for those with longer expected lifespans, since such retirees would receive higher delayed benefits for a longer period of time. “At age 85 the breakeven return averages about 7%,” Blanchett observes. “Note, age 85 is a relatively aggressive longevity planning age (e.g., in a financial plan), where ages 90 or 95 are more common.” By age 90, the necessary breakeven yearly returns all exceed 8%, and by age 95 they are all about 9%. In the annuity scenario, the necessary breakeven returns are lower, landing at about 6% with assumed longevity of 90. While U.S. stocks have had a long-term return that exceeded 8%, actually getting that full return would require a relatively risky portfolio with a significant level of uncertainty compared to Social Security benefits or payouts from guaranteed income annuities. Forecasted stock returns for the next decade are also lower than historical averages, Blanchett warns. What About Married Couples? Blanchett also runs the numbers for a married couple, finding even more of an incentive to delay claiming. “The total benefits received decline upon the death of the first spouse, since...