Geopolitical and Economic Risks Rise in New Age of Competition

By Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum —

• Read the Global Risks Report 2026 here and join the conversation using #Risks26.

The annual Global Risks Report offers a view of global risks at the start of each year, focusing global leaders on addressing emerging challenges and their potential knock-on effects. It does not offer predictions, nor does it suggest that the future is predetermined. Instead, it provides a range of potential futures with a view to prevention and management. Three years ago, the 18th edition of the Global Risks Report considered the possibility of a “polycrisis”, as risks from multiple domains unfold at the same time. This 21st edition of the Global Risks Report explores how a new competitive order is taking shape and its impact across multiple concurrent risk domains. We are witnessing the turmoil caused by kinetic wars, the deployment of economic weapons for strategic advantage, and growing fragmentation across societies. And as these “here and now” risks unfold, longer-term challenges, from technological acceleration to environmental decline, continue to create knockon effects across systems. In parallel, rules and institutions that have long underpinned stability are increasingly deadlocked or ineffective in managing this turbulence.

While this report examines the worst-case scenarios across domains, it is also clear that new forms of global cooperation are already unfolding even amid competition, and the global economy is demonstrating resilience in the face of uncertainty. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches remain essential to sustain economic growth, accelerate innovation responsibly, and build adaptive capacity for an increasingly complex era. This report examines a future where today’s relative resilience breaks down in the face of unprecedented turbulence, defined by the accelerating scale, interconnectedness and speed of global risks. Among contributors to the report’s survey and narrative, negative perceptions of the future are mounting. We find that 50% of leaders and experts surveyed anticipate either a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years, growing to 57% over the next 10 years with only 1% anticipating a calm outlook across each time horizon.

Geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the most severe risk over the next two years while economic risks have experienced the sharpest rises among all risk categories over the twoyear timeframe, with concerns growing over an economic downturn, rising inflation and potential asset bubbles as countries face high debt burdens and volatile markets. Meanwhile, inequality is once again identified as the most interconnected global risk over the next decade, fuelling other global risks as the social contract between citizens and government falters under pressure. And as shorter-term concerns overtake shared longterm global objectives, environmental risks are being reprioritized downward in the two-year time horizon, with the majority declining in rank and exhibiting reduced severity scores, even as they remain key concerns in the ten-year time horizon. Finally, technological acceleration, while driving unprecedented opportunities, is also generating significant risks in the form of misinformation and disinformation, a top short-term concern, and creating anxiety about the potentially adverse longterm outcomes of AI, a risk that sees the sharpest increase in rank between the short term and the long term across all 33 risks covered.

The first section of this report shares these and other results from the latest annual Global Risks Perception Survey, which this year brought together the views of over 1,300 global leaders and experts across academia, business, government, international organizations and civil society. The second section of this report examines six key global themes in depth and considers how the risks associated with them may unfold in the coming years. These include relatively short- to medium-term risks associated with “multipolarity without multilateralism”, “values at war”, and an “economic reckoning” as well as medium- to long-term concerns associated with “infrastructure endangered”, “quantum leaps” and “AI at large”. As nations turn inward and strategic competition intensifies, we need a clear-eyed focus on understanding the dangers that lie ahead as well as maintaining or rebuilding capacity for collective action on these shared challenges.

We would like to thank over 160 experts, including from the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, the Chief Risk Officers Community, as well as Forum C-suite communities and staff from across its eleven thematic Centres, whose insights have shaped this report.

As the Global Risks Report enters its 21st year, one lesson endures: cooperation is indispensable for global risk management. In a world with greater competition, this may be harder to achieve, but only by rebuilding trust and new forms of collaborative mechanisms can leaders steer us towards greater resilience and help shape a more stable future. The future is not a single, fixed path but a range of possible trajectories, each dependent on the decisions we make today as a global community. The challenges highlighted in this report – spanning geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks – underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.

Press Release: Geopolitical and Economic Risks Rise in New Age of Competition

• Geoeconomic confrontation emerges as the top global risk for 2026, climbing eight positions in the two-year outlook, as economic risks rise fastest in the short term – with downturn and inflation both surging eight positions year-on-year.
• AI anxiety soars while environmental risks declined in ranking in the short term.
• Global outlook remains uncertain: half of experts expect a turbulent or stormy global outlook; only 1% anticipate calm.
• Join the conversation using #Risks26.

Geneva, Switzerland (Jan. 14, 2026) – The World Economic Forum’s newly published Global Risks Report 2026 finds geoeconomic confrontation emerges as the top risk for the year, followed by interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarization and misinformation and disinformation.

The outlook from leaders and experts shows deep concern. Half of those surveyed anticipate a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year. A further 40% expect the two-year outlook to be unsettled at the very least, while 9% expect stability and 1% predict calm. When it comes to the outlook for the next 10 years, 57% expect a turbulent or stormy world, 32% expect things to be unsettled, 10% predict stability and 1% anticipate calm.

“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential,” said Børge Brende, President and CEO, World Economic Forum. “Our Annual Meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them.”

“The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks – from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt – and changes our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “The challenges highlighted in the report underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”

The report analyses risks across three timeframes: immediate (2026); short-to-medium term (the next two years); and long term (the next 10 years). In the near term, armed conflict, the weaponization of economic tools and societal fragmentation are colliding. As these immediate risks intensify, longer-term challenges from technological acceleration to environmental decline are also creating knock-on effects.

Geopolitical, economic and geoeconomic risks surge

Geoeconomic confrontation tops the near-term rankings, with 18% of respondents viewing it as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026, as well as being ranked 1st for severity over the next two years, up eight positions from last year. State-based armed conflict follows in 2nd position for 2026, dropping to 5th position in the two-year timeframe.

In a world of rising rivalries and prolonged conflicts, confrontation threatens supply chains and broader global economic stability as well as the cooperative capacity required to address economic shocks. When it comes to the geopolitical outlook, 68% of respondents expect a “multipolar or fragmented order” over the next decade, up four points from last year.

Economic risks show the largest collective increase in the two-year outlook. Economic downturn and inflation risks both surged eight positions, to 11th and 21st respectively, while asset bubble burst rose seven to 18th position. Mounting debt concerns and potential asset bubbles, amid geoeconomic tensions, could trigger a new phase of volatility.

Technology, societies and the environment

Misinformation and disinformation ranks 2nd on the two-year outlook while cyber insecurity ranks 6th. Adverse outcomes of AI show the starkest trajectory, climbing from 30th in the two-year horizon to 5th in the 10-year horizon, reflecting anxiety about implications for labour markets, societies and security.

Societal polarization ranks 4th in 2026 and 3rd by 2028. Inequality is in 7th position in the two- and 10-year outlooks. Inequality was also selected as the most interconnected risk for a second consecutive year, fuelling other risks as social mobility falters. Economic downturn is the second-most interconnected. Underlying these interconnections are concerns about cost-of-living pressures and K-shaped economies becoming entrenched.

With short-term concerns overtaking long-term objectives, environmental risks declined in ranking in the two-year outlook. Extreme weather dropped from 2nd to 4th, pollution from 6th to 9th, while critical change to Earth systems and biodiversity loss fell seven and five positions respectively. All environmental risks declined in severity score, representing an absolute shift, not just a relative one. Yet over the 10-year period, they remain the most severe – the top three are extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical change to Earth systems. Three-quarters of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy environmental outlook, the most negative of any category.

About the Global Risks Report

The Global Risks Report 2026, the 21st edition of this annual report, marks the second half of a turbulent decade. The report analyses global risks through three timeframes to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities. Chapter 1 presents the findings of this year’s Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which captures insights from over 1,300 experts worldwide — global leaders and experts from academia, business, government, international organizations and civil society, as well as the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, the Global Future Councils Network and the Forum’s C-suite communities. . It explores risks in the current or immediate term (in 2026), the short-to-medium term (to 2028) and in the long term (to 2036). Chapter 2 explores the range of implications of these risks and their interconnections, through six in-depth analyses of selected themes. Below are the key findings of the report, in which we compare the risk outlooks across the three-time horizons, aiming to equip leaders with foresight to address emerging challenges and foster collective action to build a more resilient future. For more information, visit the Global Risks Initiative.

The Forum’s Scenarios for the Global Economy Dialogue Series complements this approach to building foresight. Two recent publications explore the strategic implications for businesses of different trajectories for the global economy to 2030. Four Futures for the New Economy examines the interaction of geopolitical and technology drivers, while Four Futures for Jobs in the New Economy focuses on critical uncertainties on AI and talent trends. Both offer tools to navigate uncertainty, identifying indicators to watch, implications of each scenario and no-regret moves to prepare for multiple futures.

About the Global Risks Initiative

The Global Risks Report is a key pillar of the Forum’s Global Risks Initiative, which works to raise awareness and build consensus on the risks the world faces, to enable learning on risk preparedness and resilience. The Global Risks Consortium, a group of business, government and academic leaders, plays a critical role in translating risk foresight into ideas for proactive action and supporting leaders with the knowledge and tools to navigate emerging crises and shape a more stable, resilient world.

About the World Economic Forum

The World Economic Forum, committed to improving the state of the world, is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation. The Forum engages the foremost political, business and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. For more information, visit www.weforum.org.

SOURCE: World Economic Forum