Small business confidence remains shaken amid tariff woes: Business Barometer®

Toronto, ON (Apr. 17, 2025) – Long-term small business confidence gained 9.3 index points in April, reaching 34.8, up from the record low level of 25.0 points recorded in March, finds the latest Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)’s Monthly Business Barometer® survey.

“The long-term outlook has slightly recovered, but it’s still at abysmal levels. In fact, it’s only reached the March 2020 level of optimism. So, while the business sentiment trended in the right direction this month, partly due to the elimination of the federal carbon tax, small businesses are still feeling worried and uncertain about the future,” said Andreea Bourgeois, CFIB’s director of economics. “We’ve only gone from an extremely pessimistic outlook to just pessimistic.”

Business owners are forecasting price increases of an average of 3.5% and plan to raise wages by an average of 2.2% over the next few months.

Weak demand continues to plague over half (55%) of small firms. While hiring intentions slightly improved in April, they are still below their historical averages for this time of year, with 14% of firms looking to hire and 17% planning to lay off in the next few months.

All provinces maintained their very low optimism levels. Businesses in retail, hospitality, and construction saw a slight recovery in confidence, while those in agriculture and wholesale registered another decline in optimism.

“The cost of doing business is still expensive. The uncertainty caused by the current political environment and the trade war is slowing down consumer spending, leading to fewer sales and lower revenue for many business owners,” Bourgeois said.

Methodology

April Business Barometer®: April findings are based on 417 responses from a stratified random sample of CFIB members, to a controlled-access web survey. Data reflects responses received from April 3 to 8. Findings are statistically accurate to +/- 4.8 per cent, 19 times in 20. Every new month, the entire series of indicators is recalculated for the previous month to include all survey responses received in that previous month. Measured on a scale between 0 and 100, an index below 50 means owners expecting their business’s performance to be weaker over the next three or 12 months outnumber those expecting stronger performance.

About CFIB

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada’s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 100,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners’ chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at cfib.ca.

Source: Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)

Tags: Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), small business, survey