Latest Global Risks Report reveals an increasingly fractured global landscape

World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025

Geneva, Switzerland (Feb. 10, 2025) – The World Economic Forum has released the 20th edition of its Global Risks Report, which reveals an increasingly fractured global landscape in 2025, where escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal and technological challenges threaten stability and progress. This edition presents the findings of the Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025 (GRPS), which captures insights from over 900 experts worldwide. The report analyses global risks through three timeframes to support decision- makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities.

Preface

The multi-decade structural forces highlighted in last year’s Global Risks Report – technological acceleration, geostrategic shifts, climate change and demographic bifurcation – and the interactions they have with each other have continued their march onwards. The ensuing risks are becoming more complex and urgent, and accentuating a paradigm shift in the world order characterized by greater instability, polarizing narratives, eroding trust and insecurity. Moreover, this is occurring against a background where today’s governance frameworks seem ill-equipped for addressing both known and emergent global risks or countering the fragility that those risks generate.

This is the 20th edition of the Global Risks Report. Looking back over the last two decades, environmental risks have steadily consolidated their position as the greatest source of long-term concern. This year’s Global Risks Perception Survey shows that a sense of alarm is also mounting in the shorter term: Environmental problems, from extreme weather to pollution, are here now and the need to implement solutions is urgent.

Concerns about state-based armed conflict and geoeconomic confrontation have on average remained relatively high in the ranks over the last 20 years, with some variability. Today, geopolitical risk – and specifically the perception that conflicts could worsen or spread – tops the list of immediate-term concerns. Fear and uncertainty cloud the outlook in various parts of the world, including in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan, with multilateral institutions struggling to provide eff ective mediation and work towards resolutions. Societal risks such as inequality rank high among today’s leading concerns as well as over the last years. Polarization within societies is further hardening views and affecting policy-making. It also continues to fan the flames of misinformation and disinformation, which, for the second year running, is the top-ranked short- to medium-term concern across all risk categories. Efforts to combat this risk are coming up against a formidable opponent in Generative AI-created false or misleading content that can be produced and distributed at scale. More broadly, technological risks, while not seen as immediate, rise in the rankings for the 10-year time horizon, given the rapid pace of change in areas such as AI and biotech.

Economic risks have fallen in the rankings since last year, with inflation and the risk of an economic downturn no longer top of mind among decisionmakers and experts. But there is no room for complacency: if the coming months see a spiral of tariffs and other trade-restricting measures globally, the economic consequences could be significant. Elevated valuations in several asset classes make them more vulnerable to these and other risks.

In this report we dive deep into key global risk themes – conflict, trade wars, and technology and polarization as leading short- to medium-term concerns, as well as pollution, biotech and superageing as areas where serious risks could unfold over a longer-term time horizon. We also provide a retrospective view of the last two decades of assessing global risks. Twenty years ago, when we were preparing our first Global Risks Report, the world was in a different place. Risks that have been well managed and mitigated since then were those where the concerted and collective efforts of multistakeholder leaders helped to build common ground, compromises and mutually acceptable solutions. It will be up to visionary leaders to involve all key stakeholders to address the risks now foreseen for the next decade and to build durable peace and prosperity.

The report highlights the latest findings from our annual Global Risks Perception Survey, which this year brought together the collective intelligence of over 900 global leaders across academia, business, government, international organizations and civil society. It also leverages insights from some 100 thematic experts, including the risk specialists who form the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, the Global Future Council on Complex Risks, and the Chief Risk Officers Community. We would also like to express our gratitude to the core team that developed this report – Mark Elsner and Grace Atkinson – and to Ricky Li, Ignacio Moreno and Gayle Markovitz for their support.

The world has changed profoundly over the last 20 years and will continue to do so in unpredictable ways. But foresight based on informed, expert views remains critical for better planning and preparation, in both the short and long term. The 20th Global Risks Report continues to shine a light on globally relevant risks that are often complex and sometimes alarming. Yet, in examining the trajectory of the risks foreseen over the last two decades, it is clear that there is no viable alternative to multilateral solutions going forward. Leaders across the public and private sectors, civil society, international organizations and academia must seize the baton to work openly and constructively with each other. By deepening honest dialogue and acting urgently to mitigate the risks that lie ahead, we can rebuild trust and together create stronger, more resilient economies and societies.

Key Findings

• Declining optimism: As we enter 2025, the global outlook is increasingly fractured across geopolitical, environmental, societal, economic and technological domains.
• Deepening geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions: Comparing this year’s findings for the world in
  2025 with the two-year risk outlook provided by the GRPS two years ago shows how far perceptions have darkened when it comes to conflict, with state-based armed conflict now ranked as the #1 current risk by 23% of respondents after being overlooked as a leading two-year risk two years ago.
• A growing sense of societal fragmentation: Societal fractures are central to the overall risks landscape with inequality perceived as the most central risk of all, playing a significant role in both triggering and being influenced by other risks, including Societal polarization, Involuntary migration or displacement and Erosion of human rights and/ or civic freedoms.
• Environmental risks shift from long-term concern to urgent reality: The impacts of environmental risks have worsened in intensity and frequency, and the outlook for environmental risks over the next decade is alarming, as extreme weather events are anticipated to become even more of a concern than they already are, with biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse ranked second
• Technological risks – still “under the radar”: Amid a surge in artificial intelligence tools, concerns about adverse outcomes of AI technologies are low in the risk ranking, but complacency around the risks of such technologies should be avoided given the fast-paced nature of change in the field of AI and its increasing ubiquity.
• Is consensus possible in a fragmenting world? The time to act is now, but deepening divisions and increasing fragmentation are reshaping international relations and calling into
  question whether existing structures are equipped to tackle the challenges collectively confronting us. Levels of global cooperation across many areas of geopolitics and humanitarian issues,
  economic relations, and environmental, societal and technological challenges may reach new lows in the coming years.

Read more in the Global Risks Report 2025

About the World Economic Forum

The World Economic Forum, committed to improving the state of the world, is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation. The Forum engages the foremost political, business and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. For more information, visit www.weforum.org.

About Zurich

Zurich North America is one of the largest providers of insurance solutions and services to businesses and individuals. Our customers represent industries ranging from agriculture to construction and include more than 90 percent of the Fortune 500. We’ve backed the building of some of the most recognizable structures in North America — from the Hoover Dam to Madison Square Garden to the Confederation Bridge. Our North American, LEED Platinum® headquarters is located in the Chicago area. We employ approximately 9,000 people in North America and have offices throughout the U.S. and Canada. Further information is available at www.zurichna.com.

Zurich Insurance Group (Zurich) is a leading multi-line insurer that serves its customers in global and local markets. With about 55,000 employees, it provides a wide range of property and casualty, and life insurance products and services in more than 215 countries and territories. Zurich’s customers include individuals, small businesses, and mid-sized and large companies, as well as multinational corporations. The Group is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, where it was founded in 1872. The holding company, Zurich Insurance Group Ltd (ZURN), is listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange and has a level I American Depositary Receipt (ZURVY) program, which is traded over-the-counter on OTCQX Further information is available at www.zurich.com.

About Marsh & McLennan Companies

Marsh & McLennan (NYSE: MMC) is the world’s leading professional services firm in the areas of risk, strategy and people. The company’s nearly 65,000 colleagues advise clients in over 130 countries. With annual revenue over $14 billion, Marsh & McLennan helps clients navigate an increasingly dynamic and complex environment through four market-leading firms. Marsh advises individual and commercial clients of all sizes on insurance broking and innovative risk management solutions. Guy Carpenter develops advanced risk, reinsurance and capital strategies that help clients grow profitably and pursue emerging opportunities. Mercer delivers advice and technology-driven solutions that help organizations meet the health, wealth and career needs of a changing workforce. Oliver Wyman serves as a critical strategic, economic and brand advisor to private sector and governmental clients. For more information, visit mmc.com.

SOURCE: World Economic Forum

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