Get ready for 4% yields because we could be in for more Fed hikes than we bargained for, says Jamie Dimon
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said it’s possible U.S. growth and inflation prove fast enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more than many anticipate, and it would be wise to prepare for benchmark yields to climb to 4 per cent.
“It might force the 10-year up” if the Fed boosts short-term rates more than expected, Dimon said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Stephen Engle in Beijing, referring to the yield on 10-year Treasury notes. “You can easily deal with 4 per cent bonds and I think people should be prepared for that.”
As long as rates climbed because the U.S. economy was in good health, the move would amount to “normalization,” Dimon said.
With the Fed paring back its balance sheet and the federal government increasing its borrowing, the U.S. will have to finance by the end of the year “US$400 billion a quarter — that’s a lot, that’s a huge shift from the past,” Dimon also said. Along with cutbacks in bond purchases by other central banks, it “may cause more volatility, higher rates in a way we don’t fully understand” given the exit from quantitative easing is unprecedented, he said.
The JPMorgan CEO spoke in a week when the U.S. will auction a combined US$73 billion of coupon-bearing securities as the Treasury boosts issuance to cope with a swelling deficit. While supply concerns have prompted some to declare the end of the decades-long bull market in bonds, others see 10-year yields staying relatively contained.
In the first of three note offerings this week, the Treasury will auction US$31 billion of three-year notes Tuesday, followed by 10-year and 30-year sales on Wednesday and Thursday. The new 2021 note is currently yielding around 2.65 percent in when-issued trading ahead of the sale, while the benchmark 10-year rate is at 2.95 percent.
Billionaire bond investor Bill Gross at Janus Henderson said in a May 3 interview he expects the yield to “meander” between 2.80 per cent and 3.15 per cent for the rest of the year — in what he termed a “hibernating bear market.” Dan Ivascyn, who runs the world’s largest actively managed bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said last month that it was “premature to begin declaring a bear market” and that yields beyond 3 per cent could present a buying opportunity.
For Dimon, the key is that markets are in uncharted territory when it comes to what central banks are setting out to do.
“We’ve never had QE, we’ve never had reversal,” Dimon said.
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