Majority of B.C. now in favour of Trans Mountain, but not swayed by Alberta’s threats to cut off oil supplies: poll
CALGARY – Canada-wide support for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has increased rapidly in recent months, including in British Columbia where a majority now indicate they support the project.
The new poll from Angus Reid Institute shows that even in metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island – the two areas most opposed to the construction of Houston-based Kinder Morgan Inc.’s $7.4-billion pipeline expansion between Alberta and B.C. – a majority of respondents are now in favour of the project.
Kinder Morgan announced earlier this month that it is pulling back on spending for the project and has given Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government until May 31 to give a clear signal that the project will proceed.
The pipeline is fiercely opposed by the coalition government of NDP and the Green Party in British Columbia, putting it at odds with the ruling NDP government in Alberta, which sees it as a vital conduit to Asian markets, and Ottawa which had approved the pipeline.
B.C. Premier John Horgan met with his Albertan counterpart Rachel Notley and Trudeau over the weekend to break the deadlock. Since then, Alberta government has threatened to cut off oil supplies to B.C.
Meanwhile, Trudeau said he instructed finance minister Bill Morneau to enter negotiations with Kinder Morgan to “remove the uncertainty” hanging over the project.
The poll, conducted this week among 2,125 Canadian adults, found that 55 per cent of respondents said they support the project, which is up from 49 per cent in February. Still, 26 per cent say they oppose the pipeline and 20 per cent weren’t sure.
The Canada-wide responses are similar to responses within British Columbia, where 54 per cent of respondents said they support the project, including in areas like Vancouver and Victoria, where the majority of the opposition to the pipeline is centered.
In metro Vancouver, 50 per cent of respondents said they support the project, compared with 39 per cent who were opposed and 11 per cent who said they didn’t know.
Support was higher in Victoria, where 54 per cent said they supported the project and 43 per cent said opposed it and 3 per cent weren’t sure.
In other parts of B.C., support for the pipeline jumped to 60 per cent in favour, 32 per cent opposed and 8 per cent unsure.
The poll also pointed out that, in the minds of British Columbians, a court decision will be a critical factor in determining their view on B.C. NDP Premier John Horgan’s opposition to the pipeline.
A release from Angus Reid Institute notes that “the vast majority of British Columbians – including the one-third who currently oppose the project – say a court ruling that its provincial government does not have the constitutional authority to block the project would be enough to give in and allow the pipeline to be twinned.”
The poll also showed that hard line attempts — like cutting off the supply of oil from Alberta to B.C., as Edmonton has threatened to do — would be less effective in changing the minds of people opposed to the project. It shows that 93 per cent of respondents in B.C. who said they were opposed to the pipeline believe a softer stance, offering B.C. incentives and compromises, would be more effective than threats.
However, 53 per cent of B.C. respondents in favour of the pipeline believed the federal government should take a hard line with B.C., compared to 47 per cent opposed.
B.C. Environment Minister George Heyman recently said lawyers had advised the government “that we did not have the authority to stop a project that had been approved by the federal government within its jurisdiction.”
Victoria plans to file a reference case to test whether or not it can exert some authority over what flows through the federally regulated pipeline.
• Email: gmorgan@nationalpost.com | Twitter: geoffreymorgan