Commercial property rates post sharpest decline in a decade: Willis report
Rates for large and complex property programs fell 14.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, with shared and layered placements down 23.41 percent, as the multiyear hard market reverses course across North America
New York, NY (Oct. 1, 2026) – Willis, a WTW business, has released the fall 2026 edition of its Insurance Marketplace Realities report, examining rate predictions and market conditions across more than 30 lines of commercial insurance in North America.
Large and complex property rates fell an average of 14.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 8.4 percent a year earlier, as competition among insurers intensified. Shared and layered programs, placements with five or more carriers, saw average declines of 23.41 percent, up from 14.57 percent in the second quarter of 2025. The market has now moved from the depths of the 2018 through 2024 hard market toward pricing last seen in 2019.
The report, whose theme is “The Specialist View: Navigating Tomorrow’s Risk Landscape for 2027,” reflects on how specialization across lines is helping clients navigate accelerating technology risk, including new exposures tied to artificial intelligence and data infrastructure investment.
“Clients are navigating a market being reshaped by specialization and technology at the same time,” said Jackie Bolig, Head of Placement and Broking Solutions for North America at Willis. “The pace of change, particularly around AI and data infrastructure, means brokers can’t operate in silos. Our clients need advisors who connect the dots across their full risk profile.”
Additional findings include:
- Global insured catastrophe losses reached 107 billion dollars in 2025, the sixth consecutive year above 100 billion, even as the first half of 2026 produced the lowest total since 2020
- Auto liability and umbrella/excess lines for high hazard risks remain under pressure as does high hazard general liability risks
- Cyber rates are holding roughly flat between a 5 percent decrease and a 5 percent increase, and the report urges buyers to reinvest any savings into higher limits given the continued rise of AI enabled ransomware and data exfiltration threats.
Casualty tells a different story than property. Auto liability and general/excess liability lines (including lead umbrella) for high hazard risks remain under pressure from nuclear verdicts and social inflation. The report also highlights early indications that rate increases in the excess casualty market may be nearing their peak, driven in part by new capacity entering the market through broker-led facilities as well as newly established managing general agents and underwriting agents.
“Rates and risk are no longer moving in the same direction across every line, and that gap is where our clients need the most guidance,” said Bolig. “Property buyers have room to negotiate this cycle. Casualty and specialty buyers need to plan for a market that is still correcting for verdict severity and emerging technology risk.”
The full Insurance Marketplace Realities report, covering rate predictions across major product lines, professional liability lines and specialty lines and solutions, is available now.
Insurance Marketplace Realities: report preview
Canada Property:
Our 2027 Canada property insurance outlook highlights a competitive market with double-digit rate reductions, abundant capacity, insurer consolidation, and catastrophe exposure.
- Key takeaway: The property market remained awash in capacity throughout the first half of 2026, continuing the competitive market conditions from 2025, which have been fueled by softening reinsurance rates, benign losses and insurer underwriting profitability.
The Canadian property insurance market remains highly competitive, with double-digit rate reductions continuing across many sectors. Depending on insured values, loss experience, submission quality and program structure, reductions can be achieved into the 30%-40% range. Market capacity remains abundant as both domestic and international insurers actively seek growth opportunities, including for natural catastrophe exposed risks. Underwriting profitability has remained strong, with Canadian insurers reporting half-year combined ratios generally ranging between 89% and 94%.
Many insureds have achieved both premium and program efficiencies by restructuring their insurance programs, including simplifying excess layers or consolidating capacity within a quota share structure. In addition, insurers continue to offer enhanced terms to secure participation on desirable risks, including increased sublimits, engineering fee allowances and multiyear agreements that provide pre-negotiated rate reductions at future renewals. Insurers are also re-engaging with risks that were previously viewed as challenging, seeking to deploy capacity on primary layers and natural catastrophe-exposed placements, particularly where pricing remains most attractive.
Looking ahead, it remains uncertain whether recent consolidation within the insurance industry will reduce available market capacity and moderate current competitive conditions. Notable transactions include Definity’s acquisition of Travelers Canada, Wawanesa’s pending acquisition of Everest Canada and global deals such as Zurich’s acquisition of Beazley and Sompo’s acquisition of Aspen. While the market remains highly competitive today, the longer-term impact of these transactions on capacity, pricing and underwriting appetite is yet to be determined.
Canada Casualty:
Our 2027 Canada casualty report examines a stable yet competitive market, where rising claim severity and emerging liabilities reinforce underwriting discipline.
- Key takeaway: The Canadian casualty market is expected to remain well-capitalized and competitive entering into 2027, but rising claim severity, emerging liabilities and litigation trends are reinforcing underwriting discipline and proactive risk management.
The Canadian casualty insurance market is expected to remain stable and highly competitive, supported by strong insurer capitalization, abundant capacity, an influx of specialized products and solutions and continued interest in profitable growth opportunities. Amid a soft market condition, insurers are increasingly focused on long-term portfolio sustainability while combating evolving legal, economic and operational risk environments. Organizations continue to face a broad range of loss drivers, including increasing litigation costs, supply chain complexity, technological dependency, workforce challenges and heightened stakeholder expectations.
Against this backdrop, insurers are becoming increasingly selective in how they deploy capacity, despite continuing to offer highly competitive pricing and broad coverage terms. While current market conditions support growth objectives and remain favorable for insureds, many insurers are balancing near-term expansion with a focus on long-term portfolio profitability and sustainability. As a result, underwriting scrutiny is gradually increasing, with greater emphasis placed on risk quality, operational controls, loss history and an organization’s overall approach to risk management. Insurers are increasingly seeking accounts that align with their future underwriting strategies and demonstrate a commitment to managing evolving exposures. Organizations that can clearly articulate their risk profile, leverage data-driven insights and proactively address emerging risks are expected to be best positioned to secure favorable insurance outcomes and maintain strong insurer support over the long term.
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SOURCE: WTW
Tags: market dynamics, Property/Casualty (P&C) insurance, trends, Willis Towers Watson (WTW)