A cyber event is the top global business risk for 2024: Allianz Risk Barometer

• Data breaches, attacks on critical infrastructure or physical assets and increased ransomware attacks drive cyber concerns (36% of responses)
• Business interruption remains #2 with 31% of responses. Natural catastrophes is the biggest riser compared to 2023 with 26% in #3
• Risk perception differs regionally for climate change, political risks and violence, and shortage of skilled workforce

Munich (Jan. 16, 2024) – Cyber incidents such as ransomware attacks, data breaches, and IT disruptions are the biggest worry for companies globally in 2024, according to the Allianz Risk Barometer. The closely interlinked peril of Business interruption ranks second. Natural catastrophes (up from #6 to #3 year-on-year), Fire, explosion (up from #9 to #6), and Political risks and violence (up from #10 to #8) are the biggest risers in the latest compilation of the top global business risks, based on the insights of more than 3,000 risk management professionals.

Allianz Commercial CEO Petros Papanikolaou comments on the findings: “The top risks and major risers in this year’s Allianz Risk Barometer reflect the big issues facing companies around the world right now – digitalization, climate change and an uncertain geopolitical environment. Many of these risks are already hitting home, with extreme weather, ransomware attacks and regional conflicts expected to test the resilience of supply chains and business models further in 2024. Brokers and customers of insurance companies should be aware and adjust their insurance covers accordingly.”

Large corporates, mid-size, and smaller businesses are united by the same risk concerns – they are all mostly worried about cyber, business interruption and natural catastrophes. However, the resilience gap between large and smaller companies is widening, as risk awareness among larger organizations has grown since the pandemic with a notable drive to upgrade resilience, the report notes. Conversely, smaller businesses often lack the time and resources to identify and effectively prepare for a wider range of risk scenarios and, as a result, take longer to get the business back up and running after an unexpected incident.

Trends driving cyber activity in 2024

Cyber incidents (36% of overall responses) rank as the most important risk globally for the third year in a row – for the first time by a clear margin (5% points). It is the top peril in 17 countries, including Australia, France, Germany, India, Japan, the UK, and the USA. A data breach is seen as the most concerning cyber threat for Allianz Risk Barometer respondents (59%) followed by attacks on critical infrastructure and physical assets (53%). The recent increase in ransomware attacks – 2023 saw a worrying resurgence in activity, with insurance claims activity up by more than 50% compared with 2022 – ranks third (53%).

“Cyber criminals are exploring ways to use new technologies such as generative artificial intelligence (AI) to automate and accelerate attacks, creating more effective malware and phishing. The growing number of incidents caused by poor cyber security, in mobile devices in particular, a shortage of millions of cyber security professionals, and the threat facing smaller companies because of their reliance on IT outsourcing are also expected to drive cyber activity in 2024, “explains Scott Sayce, Global Head of Cyber, Allianz Commercial.

Business interruption and natural catastrophes

Despite an easing of post-pandemic supply chain disruption in 2023, Business interruption (31%) retains its position as the second biggest threat in the 2024 survey. This result reflects the interconnectedness in an increasingly volatile global business environment, as well as a strong reliance on supply chains for critical products or services. Improving business continuity management, identifying supply chain bottlenecks, and developing alternative suppliers continue to be key risk management priorities for companies in 2024.

Natural catastrophes (26%) is one of the biggest movers at #3, up three positions. 2023 was a record-breaking year on several fronts. It was the hottest year since records began, while insured losses exceeded US$100bn for the fourth consecutive year, driven by the highest ever damage bill of US$60bn from severe thunderstorms. Around the world, natural catastrophes is the #1 risk in Croatia, Greece, Hong Kong, Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Slovenia, and Thailand, many of which sustained some of the most significant events of 2023. In Greece, a wildfire near the city of Alexandroupolis in August was the largest ever recorded in the EU. Meanwhile, severe flooding in Slovenia resulted in one of the biggest supply chain events, causing production delays and parts shortages for European car manufacturers.

Regional differences and risk risers and fallers

Climate change (18%) may be a non-mover year-on-year at #7 but is among the top three business risks in countries such as Brazil, Greece, Italy, Turkey, and Mexico. Physical damage to corporate assets from more frequent and severe extreme weather events are a key threat. The utility, energy and industrial sectors are among the most exposed. In addition, net zero transition risks and liability risks are expected to increase in future as companies invest in new, largely untested low-carbon technologies to transform their business models.

Unsurprisingly, given ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and tensions between China and the US, Political risks and violence (14%) is up to #8 from #10. 2024 is also a super-election year, where as much as 50% of the world’s population could go to the polls, including in India, Russia, the US, and UK. Dissatisfaction with the potential outcomes, coupled with general economic uncertainty, the high cost of living, and growing disinformation fueled by social media, means societal polarization is expected to increase, triggering more social unrest in many countries.

However, there is some hope among Allianz Risk Barometer respondents that 2024 could see the wild economic ups and down experienced since the Covid-19 shock settle down, resulting in Macroeconomic developments (19%), falling to #5 from #3. Yet economic growth outlooks remain subdued – just over 2% globally in 2024, according to Allianz Research.

“But this lackluster growth is a necessary evil: high inflation rates will finally be a thing of the past,” says Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz. “This will give central banks some room to maneuver – lower interest rates are likely in the second half of the year. Not a second too late, as stimulus cannot be expected from fiscal policy. A caveat is the considerable number of elections in 2024 and the risk of further upheavals depending on certain outcomes.”

In a global context, the shortage of skilled workforce (12%) is seen as a lower risk than in 2023, dropping from #8 to #10. However, businesses in Central and Eastern Europe, the UK and Australia identify it as a top five business risk. Given there is still record low unemployment in many countries around the globe, companies are looking to fill more jobs than there are people available to fill them. IT or data experts are seen as the most challenging to find, making this issue a critical aspect in the fight against cyber-crime.

The top 10 global business risks for 2024

About the Allianz Risk Barometer

The Allianz Risk Barometer is an annual business risk ranking compiled by Allianz Group’s corporate insurer Allianz Commercial, together with other Allianz entities. It incorporates the views of 3,069 risk management experts in 92 countries and territories including CEOs, risk managers, brokers and insurance experts and is being published for the 13th time.

Download the Allianz Risk Barometer with full global and country risk rankings.

Methodology

The 13th Allianz Risk Barometer incorporates the views of 3,069 respondents from 92 countries and territories. The annual corporate risk survey was conducted among Allianz customers (businesses around the globe), brokers and industry trade organizations. It also surveyed risk consultants, underwriters, senior managers, claims experts, as well as other risk management professionals in the corporate insurance segment of Allianz Commercial and other Allianz entities.

Respondents were questioned during October and November 2023. The survey focused on large, smaller and mid-size companies. Respondents were asked to select the industry about which they were particularly knowledgeable and to name up to three risks they believed to be most important. Most answers were for large-size companies (>US$500mn annual revenue) [1,340 respondents, 44%]. Mid-size companies ($100mn+ to $500mn revenue) contributed 792 respondents (26%), while smaller enterprises (<$100mn revenue) produced 937 respondents (30%). Risk experts from 24 industry sectors were featured.

Ranking changes in the Allianz Risk Barometer are determined by positions year-on-year, not percentages.

Countries and industry sectors need at least 15 respondents to feature in the Allianz Risk Barometer Results appendix.

About Allianz Commercial

Allianz Commercial is the center of expertise and global line of Allianz Group for insuring mid-sized businesses, large enterprises and specialist risks. Among our customers are the world’s largest consumer brands, financial institutions and industry players, the global aviation and shipping industry as well as family-owned and medium enterprises which are the backbone of the economy. We also cover unique risks such as offshore wind parks, infrastructure projects or Hollywood film productions. Powered by the employees, financial strength, and network of the world’s #1 insurance brand, we work together to help our customers prepare for what’s ahead: They trust on us for providing a wide range of traditional and alternative risk transfer solutions, outstanding risk consulting and Multinational services as well as seamless claims handling. Allianz Commercial brings together the large corporate insurance business of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and the commercial insurance business of national Allianz Property & Casualty entities serving mid-sized companies. We are present in over 200 countries and territories either though our own teams or the Allianz Group network and partners. In 2022, the integrated business of Allianz Commercial generated more than €19 billion gross premium globally.

These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.

About Allianz

The Allianz Group is one of the world’s leading insurers and asset managers with more than 122 million* private and corporate customers in more than 70 countries. Allianz customers benefit from a broad range of personal and corporate insurance services, ranging from property, life and health insurance to assistance services to credit insurance and global business insurance. Allianz is one of the world’s largest investors, managing around 706 billion euros** on behalf of its insurance customers. Furthermore, our asset managers PIMCO and Allianz Global Investors manage about 1.7 trillion euros** of third-party assets. Thanks to our systematic integration of ecological and social criteria in our business processes and investment decisions, we are among the leaders in the insurance industry in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. In 2022, over 159,000 employees achieved total revenues of 152.7 billion euros and an operating profit of 14.2 billion euros for the group***. For more information, visit www.allianz.com.

* Including non-consolidated entities with Allianz customers.

** As of September 30, 2023.

*** As reported – not adjusted to reflect the application of IFRS 9 and IFRS 17.

Forward-Looking Statements

This document includes forward-looking statements, such as prospects or expectations, that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance figures, or events may differ significantly from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements.

Deviations may arise due to changes in factors including, but not limited to, the following: (i) the general economic and competitive situation in the Allianz’s core business and core markets, (ii) the performance of financial markets (in particular market volatility, liquidity, and credit events), (iii) adverse publicity, regulatory actions or litigation with respect to the Allianz Group, other well-known companies and the financial services industry generally, (iv) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, including those resulting from natural catastrophes, and the development of loss expenses, (v) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (vi) persistency levels, (vii) the extent of credit defaults, (viii) interest rate levels, (ix) currency exchange rates, most notably the EUR/USD exchange rate, (x) changes in laws and regulations, including tax regulations, (xi) the impact of acquisitions including and related integration issues and reorganization measures, and (xii) the general competitive conditions that, in each individual case, apply at a local, regional, national, and/or global level. Many of these changes can be exacerbated by terrorist activities.

Allianz assumes no obligation to update any information or forward-looking statement contained herein, save for any information we are required to disclose by law.

SOURCE: Allianz Partners

Tags: Allianz, cyber risk, top risks, trends