{"id":9847,"date":"2018-05-16T13:23:25","date_gmt":"2018-05-16T17:23:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/?p=1591861"},"modified":"2018-05-16T13:23:25","modified_gmt":"2018-05-16T17:23:25","slug":"were-right-at-peak-gold-all-major-deposits-have-been-discovered-declares-goldcorp-chairman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/2018\/05\/16\/were-right-at-peak-gold-all-major-deposits-have-been-discovered-declares-goldcorp-chairman\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018We\u2019re right at peak gold\u2019: All major deposits have been discovered, declares Goldcorp chairman"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Ian Telfer, chairman of Goldcorp Inc., is the latest industry magnate to predict the world has reached \u201cpeak gold,\u201d saying that from here on out, mine production will continue to decline because all the major deposits have been discovered.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">\u201cIf I could give one sentence about the gold mining business \u2026 it\u2019s that in my life, gold produced from mines has gone up pretty steadily for 40 years,\u201d said Telfer. \u201cWell, either this year it starts to go down, or next year it starts to go down, or it\u2019s already going down.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">\u201cWe\u2019re right at peak gold here,\u201d he added.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Although gold prices sank two per cent to US$1,289.86 per ounce this week, sliding below the psychologically significant US$1,300 mark for the first time this year, Telfer said that day that he remained &#8220;bullish&#8221; and predicted gold prices would surpass US$1,500 or US$1,600 per ounce before the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Telfer made the comments to the Financial Post while waiting to board a flight from Vancouver to Toronto, where on Thursday he will be inducted into the Canadian Business Hall of Fame. In a wide-ranging interview, he discussed his personal career highlights, market trends and company strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1592160\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" data-attachment-id=\"1592160\" data-permalink=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/commodities\/mining\/were-right-at-peak-gold-all-the-major-deposits-have-been-discovered-declares-goldcorp-chairman\/attachment\/pjt-iantelfer-6-jpg\/\" data-orig-file=\"http:\/\/wpmedia.business.financialpost.com\/2018\/05\/pjt-iantelfer-6_.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"940,705\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;5&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;Peter J. Thompson&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;NIKON D4&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;TORONTO, ONTARIO: January 14, 2015--INTO THE HALL--Goldcorp Chairman Ian Telfer spoke with Financial Post reporter Peter Koven about his induction into the Canadian Mining Hall of Fame at the National Post&#039;s head offices in Toronto, Wednesday January 14, 2015.  [Peter J. Thompson\\\/National Post]    [For Financial Post story by Peter Koven\\\/Books]  \\\/\\\/NATIONAL POST STAFF PHOTO&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1421193600&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;160&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;400&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.008&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;PJT-IanTelfer-6 .jpg&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"PJT-IanTelfer-6 .jpg\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"http:\/\/wpmedia.business.financialpost.com\/2018\/05\/pjt-iantelfer-6_.jpg?w=300\" data-large-file=\"http:\/\/wpmedia.business.financialpost.com\/2018\/05\/pjt-iantelfer-6_.jpg?w=640\" class=\"wp-image-1592160 size-large\" src=\"http:\/\/wpmedia.business.financialpost.com\/2018\/05\/pjt-iantelfer-6_.jpg?w=640&#038;h=480\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\" srcset=\"http:\/\/wpmedia.business.financialpost.com\/2018\/05\/pjt-iantelfer-6_.jpg?w=640&amp;h=480 640w, http:\/\/wpmedia.business.financialpost.com\/2018\/05\/pjt-iantelfer-6_.jpg?w=150&amp;h=113 150w, http:\/\/wpmedia.business.financialpost.com\/2018\/05\/pjt-iantelfer-6_.jpg?w=300&amp;h=225 300w, http:\/\/wpmedia.business.financialpost.com\/2018\/05\/pjt-iantelfer-6_.jpg?w=768&amp;h=576 768w, http:\/\/wpmedia.business.financialpost.com\/2018\/05\/pjt-iantelfer-6_.jpg 940w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\"><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">&#8220;Are we bad at finding it? Or have we found it all? My answer is we found it all,&#8221; says Ian Telfer, chairman of Goldcorp Inc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In addition to starting Goldcorp, one of the world\u2019s largest gold mining companies, Telfer has racked up numerous other successes in mining during the past few decades. Many people credit him with inventing the financial structure for streaming \u2014 the term for making an upfront payment for long term rights to some or all of the revenues from a specific metal extracted from a mine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The notion raised by Telfer that the world has hit maximum gold production, or peak gold, is gaining popularity. Last September, the chairman of the World Gold Council, Randall Oliphant, <span class=\"s2\">made a similar prediction,<\/span> echoing what some industry leaders have been saying for years. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">According to the WGC, which advocates for the gold industry and compiles research, annual gold production from mines has been increasing, albeit incrementally, from 2,744 metric tons in 2010 to 3,298 in 2017. Last year&#8217;s production represented less than a one per cent year over year increase from the 3,274 metric tons produced in 2016.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/pmn\/business-pmn\/goldcorp-net-earnings-slip-on-lower-gold-output-and-higher-costs\">Goldcorp net earnings slip on lower gold output and higher costs<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/commodities\/mining\/americas-has-a-ton-of-potential-goldcorps-todd-white-at-pdac\">\u2018Americas has a ton of potential\u2019: Goldcorp\u2019s Todd White at PDAC<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ryan Hanley, an analyst with Laurentian Bank Securities in Toronto, said that it&#8217;s hard to say whether the world has reached &#8220;peak gold.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Low gold prices in recent years have curtailed exploration among junior mining companies and the majors, he said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We really haven&#8217;t seen that much exploration in the past few years,&#8221; Hanley said. &#8220;It&#8217;s hard to say we&#8217;re running out of deposits, but it&#8217;s starting to look that way.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">At Goldcorp, production&nbsp;<span class=\"s2\">has dropped off<\/span> since 2015 when it produced 3.4 million ounces of gold. It produced 2.8 million in 2016 and 2.5 million last year. Industry peers Barrick Gold Corp. and Newmont Mining Corp. have also experienced declines from their peak production earlier this century.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">\u201cThey\u2019re shrinking fast,\u201d Telfer said about Barrick, which has predicted its gold production will decline over time. \u201cWe\u2019re sort of going sideways. Newmont\u2019s going sideways.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Telfer raised several possible reasons for why there are fewer discoveries. \u201cAre we not looking for it? Are we bad at finding it? Or have we found it all? My answer is we found it all. At US$1,300 (per ounce of) gold, we found it all. I don\u2019t think there are any more mines out there, or nothing significant. And the exploration records indicate that.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">According to the WGC, around two-thirds of the estimated 190,000 tonnes of gold that existed in the world at the end of 2017 was <span class=\"s2\">mined after 1950<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Telfer said that he\u2019s seen research that shows the average grade of new gold deposits \u2014 meaning the amount of gold per volume of earth extracted \u2014 is declining.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Goldcorp has taken a leading edge on applying some of the techniques used by the oil and gas industry to find new deposits. For instance, it is using IBM\u2019s Watson, which uses machine learning algorithms to analyse its exploration data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Luis Canepari, vice president of technology at Goldcorp, said a large part of the process is about making its geologists more efficient at analyzing their data and it could be \u201ctransformational.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">\u201cThere\u2019s a lot of art in finding gold, and it\u2019s a lot of experience,\u201d said Canepari. \u201cMore than a science, it\u2019s an art to find the orebody.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">He declined to give the total budget for the IBM Watson program but said it was a small percentage of the total drilling budget, \u201cperhaps up to $10 million, but it\u2019s not $50 million.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Telfer says while such technology is helpful, overall the advances in exploration have been \u201cextremely incremental.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Still, he said the pressure to find new ore bodies will ultimately help gold miners, arguing a declining supply would translate into price increases. <\/span><span class=\"s1\">\u201cI\u2019m very bullish on the price of gold.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">But the gold industry has plenty of reason for optimism, says Telfer. Even if a shrinking rate of major discoveries means the industry itself has to shrink and consolidate, it would not spell anything like death for the industry. If anything, he said the gold mining industry is tenacious.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">\u201cCanadian miners are like cockroaches, man, you can\u2019t kill us,\u201d said Telfer. \u201cThese little companies, they find a way to borrow, lease their assets, buy back equipment, do this, do that, you just can\u2019t kill them. They\u2019re survivors.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">For many in the industry, who share his view about shrinking deposits, the answer is to look in lesser explored regions of the world, including areas that have deterred miners in the past because they are geographically remote, politically unstable or where the governments want<\/span><span class=\"s1\">&nbsp;large portions of the revenues from a mine. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Telfer said Goldcorp was founded on the premise of staying in the Americas for two reasons: it is easier to manage operations that are confined to three time zones, and it&#8217;s a calculation of political risks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">\u201cSo far we haven\u2019t deviated from that,\u201d he said, \u201cThere\u2019s still opportunities in those parts of the world, but as the commodity becomes scarcer, those are the kinds of decisions you have to make.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>\u2022 Email: <a href=\"mailto:gfriedman@nationalpost.com\">gfriedman@nationalpost.com<\/a> | Twitter: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GabeFriedz\" class=\"twitter-follow-button\">GabeFriedz<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8216;Are we not looking for it? Are we bad at finding it? Or have we found it all? My answer is we found it all&#8217;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":578,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9847"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/578"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9847"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9847\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9902,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9847\/revisions\/9902"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}