{"id":9544,"date":"2018-05-15T09:02:03","date_gmt":"2018-05-15T13:02:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/?p=1590785"},"modified":"2018-05-15T09:02:03","modified_gmt":"2018-05-15T13:02:03","slug":"william-watson-why-we-should-worry-that-trump-wants-more-jobs-in-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/2018\/05\/15\/william-watson-why-we-should-worry-that-trump-wants-more-jobs-in-china\/","title":{"rendered":"William Watson: Why we should worry that Trump wants more jobs in China"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Do you figure the Chinese hacked Donald Trump\u2019s Twitter account? How else to explain his tweet on Sunday: \u201cPresident Xi of China, and I, are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cToo many jobs in China lost.\u201d This is the same Trump who ran for president arguing that China \u2014 or as he called it, &#8220;Jye-na&#8221; \u2014 had eaten America\u2019s lunch and stolen all its manufacturing jobs. Now, after his Commerce Department put ZTE in jeopardy by banning American companies from selling it technology (this in retaliation for ZTE having traded with embargoed countries like North Korea) he\u2019s suddenly concerned about the loss of Chinese jobs. Not all of them, just \u201ctoo many\u201d of them.&nbsp;According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-china-zte-trump\/zte-employees-in-china-cheer-trump-tweet-idUSKCN1IF0RP\">Reuters<\/a>, ZTE employees have been taking to social media to cheer the news and, so far, President Xi Jinping hasn\u2019t stifled their tweets, although he probably could. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cToo many jobs in China lost.\u201d You\u2019ve got to think that will feature prominently in Democratic party ads leading up to November\u2019s congressional elections. Party leaders were already tweeting Trump to say he should worry about American jobs, not Chinese. In fact, voters probably won\u2019t buy the argument that he\u2019s not worried about American jobs. To the extent he\u2019s got a consistent political brand, that\u2019s it. But the tweet hardly helps his reputation for flightiness. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/pmn\/business-pmn\/trumps-bid-to-help-chinese-firm-draws-fire-but-raises-hopes\">Trump\u2019s bid to help Chinese firm draws fire but raises hopes<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/news\/economy\/oil-surge-and-trade-disputes-threatening-us-economy\">Donald Trump\u2019s policies leading to surging oil prices, trade disputes that threaten U.S. economy<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/news\/economy\/white-is-black-up-is-down-u-s-china-clash-in-trade-brawl-at-the-wto\">\u2018White is black. Up is down\u2019: U.S. and China clash in trade brawl at the WTO<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Do you think we\u2019ll ever see him tweet: \u201cToo many jobs in Canada lost\u201d? He says he likes Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, even though he <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/politics\/trump-trudeau-1.4577179\">admits<\/a> to trying to con him with made-up numbers about the U.S. trade deficit. But President Xi is a much bigger player that any Canadian prime minister and one sure trait of bullies is that they\u2019re more aggressive with small opponents than with big ones.<\/p>\n<p>To ordinary folk it may seem reassuring that Trump and Xi are \u201cworking together\u201d to come up with a solution to the problem presented by Trump\u2019s own Commerce Department\u2019s decision. Eventually they seem likely to work out some sort of deal, first for the telecommunications and technology company ZTE and then maybe even for China-U.S. trade and investment in general.<\/p>\n<p>The charitable interpretation of Trump\u2019s sudden empathy for Chinese workers is that it\u2019s part of a long-term strategy to get China to play more by the international rulebook than the country has been doing since its accession to the WTO in 2001. Granted, when you\u2019re playing good cop\/bad cop it\u2019s more usual for the same person not to be the good cop one day (or hour) and the bad cop next. But these are changing times and Trump, as Conrad Black\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/nationalpost.com\/opinion\/conrad-black-why-donald-j-trump-is-truly-a-president-like-no-other\">new book<\/a> puts it, in glorious understatement, is \u201ca president like no other.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>But what seems more likely than a new resolution to play by the WTO rules is some sort of ad hoc deal in which the two leaders work out a more or less formal job exchange: so many thousand for you in restored ZTE jobs versus so many thousand for me in steel and aluminum, plus guarantees from you to limit exports to the U.S. from your burgeoning auto industry and so on and so on.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Judging by reports about the NAFTA negotiations, which are winding down to a Thursday deadline for congressional action this year, this kind of jobs-toting mercantilism drives the U.S. negotiators, who seem mainly interested in keeping X-number of auto sector jobs in the northeastern states that were key to Trump\u2019s electoral college victory.<\/p>\n<p>Various superficially non-discriminatory formulas have been devised to get this done, the latest of which focuses directly on wages, with the stipulation that a certain percentage of the work on a car must be done by people making more than US$15 per hour if it\u2019s to qualify as North American content.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s neutral on its face but because assembly wages are lower in Mexico than in Canada or the U.S., it binds Mexico more. No one argues that Mexican wages below US$15 aren\u2019t competitively determined \u2014 Mexico has a bigger supply of lower-skilled labour than either Canada or the U.S. \u2014 or that auto companies haven\u2019t raised wages in Mexico by making investments there. It\u2019s just that lower-paid Mexicans now do work higher-paid Americans and Canadians used to do. But lower-wage labour is Mexico\u2019s only advantage. It\u2019s not going to out-compete the U.S. or Canada in terms of investment or R&amp;D or infrastructure. What else would we expect?&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Co-operation among leaders is nice. Many times it\u2019s better than the alternative. But we don\u2019t want trade patterns determined by President Trump and President Xi. We want trade patterns determined by which country\u2019s workers and investors can do which jobs and projects better than other countries\u2019 can. What we really want is to get politicians out of these decisions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We don&rsquo;t want trade patterns determined by President Trump &#8216;working together&#8217; with President Xi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":578,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9544"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/578"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9544"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9544\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9545,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9544\/revisions\/9545"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}