{"id":7570,"date":"2018-04-27T08:32:40","date_gmt":"2018-04-27T12:32:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/?p=1581928"},"modified":"2018-04-27T08:32:40","modified_gmt":"2018-04-27T12:32:40","slug":"lawrence-solomon-are-solar-and-wind-finally-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-not-a-chance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/2018\/04\/27\/lawrence-solomon-are-solar-and-wind-finally-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-not-a-chance\/","title":{"rendered":"Lawrence Solomon: Are solar and wind finally cheaper than fossil fuels? Not a chance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c&#8217;Spectacular&#8217; drop in renewable energy costs leads to record global boost,\u201d The Guardian headline reported last year. \u201cClean Energy Is About to Become Cheaper Than Coal,\u201d pronounced MIT\u2019s Technology Review. \u201cThe cost of installing solar energy is going to plummet again,\u201d echoed Grist, the environmental journal.<\/p>\n<p>Other sources declare that renewables are not only getting cheaper, they have already become cheaper than conventional power. The climate-crusading DeSmogBlog reports that \u201cFalling Costs of Renewable Power Make (B.C.\u2019s) Site C Dam Obsolete\u201d and that \u201cCoal Just Became Uneconomic in Canada.\u201d It implores us to discover \u201cWhat Canada Can Learn From Germany\u2019s Renewable Revolution,\u201d as does Energy Post, an authoritative European journal, which described \u201cThe spectacular success of the German Energiewende (energy transition).\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s what Canada can learn from Germany, the poster child for the global warming movement. After the German government decided to reduce subsidies to the solar industry in 2012, the industry nose-dived. By this year, virtually every major German solar producer had gone under as new capacity declined by 90 per cent and new investment by 92 per cent. Some 80,000 workers \u2014 70 per cent of the solar workforce \u2014 lost their jobs. Solar power\u2019s market share is shrinking and solar panels, having outlived their usefulness, are being retired without being replaced.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/opinion\/lawrence-solomon-trudeau-will-learn-a-painful-lesson-voters-really-dislike-climate-crusading\">Lawrence Solomon: Trudeau will learn a painful lesson \u2014 voters really dislike climate crusading<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/opinion\/lawrence-solomon-carbon-bounties-could-save-us-from-the-next-little-ice-age\">Lawrence Solomon: Carbon bounties (not taxes) could save us from the next Little Ice Age<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/opinion\/peter-foster-a-lump-of-coal-for-catherine-mckennas-unethical-fake-fact-crusade\">Peter Foster: A lump of coal for Catherine McKenna\u2019s unethical fake-fact crusade<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Wind power faces a similar fate. Germany has some 29,000 wind turbines, almost all of which have been benefitting from a 20-year subsidy program that began in 2000. Starting in 2020, when subsidies run out for some 5,700 wind turbines, thousands of them each year will lose government support, making the continued operation of most of them uneconomic based on current market prices. To make matters worse, with many of the turbines failing and becoming uneconomic to maintain, they represent an environmental liability and pose the possibility of abandonment. No funds have been set aside to dispose of the blades, which are unrecyclable, or to remove the turbines\u2019 3,000-tonne reinforced concrete bases, which reach depths of 20 metres, making them a hazard to the aquifers they pierce.<\/p>\n<p>Those who hoped that Germany\u2019s newest coalition government would provide the renewable industries with a reprieve were disappointed last week when Germany\u2019s new economic minister indicated that there would be no turning back. All told, the cost to the German economy of its much-vaunted energy transition to renewables is estimated to reach 2 to 3 trillion euros by 2050.<\/p>\n<p>Germany\u2019s experience is being replicated throughout Europe \u2014 as subsidies fall, so does investment in wind turbines and solar plants, and so do jobs in these industries.<\/p>\n<p>In the real world of business and commerce, the cost of renewables makes them unaffordable without intervention by the state. As Warren Buffet explained in 2014, \u201con wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That&#8217;s the only reason to build them. They don&#8217;t make sense without the tax credit.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In the imagined world of politicians and environmental ideologues, renewables are not only affordable, they are inevitable. The difference in cost cited by those in the real and imagined worlds is called wishful thinking. This wishfulness is propped up through academic exercises that provide a stamp of authority on the ideologues\u2019 beliefs.<\/p>\n<p>One method for proving that renewables have arrived is something called \u201clevelized cost of electricity,\u201d which the U.S. Energy Information Administration says is \u201coften cited as a convenient summary measure of the overall competiveness of different generating technologies.\u201d Environmentalists cite levelized costs as if you can take them to the bank, but they are really no more than predictions of what the costs of various technologies will be over subsequent decades. By assuming that costs of producing solar panels and wind turbines will drop and the costs of fossil fuels will rise over the 30-, 40- or 50-year lifetime of a new plant a utility must build, and describing those levelized costs as if they were current costs, studies state authoritatively that renewables have become cheaper than fossil fuels.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s claims that renewables are cheap and getting cheaper are familiar. They harken back to the first Earth Day in 1970, whose message of \u201cNew Energy for a New Era\u201d was all about accelerating the transition to renewable energy worldwide. Then, as now, the belief in the viability of a renewable energy future was twinned with the conviction that fossil fuels, being finite, would inevitably become scarce and price themselves out of the market. To the ideologues\u2019 never-ending dismay, peak oil never comes. Instead comes shale gas, shale oil, and peak renewables.<\/p>\n<p><em>Lawrence Solomon executive director of Toronto-based Energy Probe.<\/em> <a href=\"mailto:LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com\"  rel=\"noopener\">LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Virtually every major German solar producer has gone under<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":578,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7570"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/578"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7570"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7570\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7574,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7570\/revisions\/7574"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7570"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7570"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7570"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}