I don\u2019t know how we all missed it, but last month marked the ninth anniversary of Donald J. Trump joining Twitter. Given that @realDonaldTrump has become the de facto official voice of the president, you\u2019d think the occasion would have received more attention. And the numbers are sort of impressive.<\/p>\n
Since setting up his account in March 2009, Trump has posted (or had someone post) 37,400 tweets, which amounts to a simple average of 4,155 a year \u2014 upwards of 10 a day. By comparison, Barack Obama, who has been on Twitter two years longer than Trump, has posted only 15,500 times, or about 1,300 tweets a year. (The fact that Obama has roughly twice as many followers as the current president probably says something about optimal tweet rates, but I\u2019m not sure what.)<\/p>\n
Anyway, the point is that Trump tweets a lot. His posts are so plentiful that a casual observer might miss a few tasty ones, especially when he\u2019s indulging in a tweet storm. For instance, he posted roughly 30 times between suppertime last Thursday and Sunday night, and among other targets blasted James Comey, The New York Times and reporter Maggie Haberman, Andrew McCabe and Nancy Pelosi. But he also turned his sights on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. \u201cLooks like OPEC is at it again,\u201d Trump thumbed in the wee hours of Friday morning. \u201cOil prices are artificially Very High! No good and will be not be accepted!\u201d<\/p>\n
It\u2019s safe to say that the OPEC-directed tweet was not the most inflammatory, nor oddly capitalized, of Trump\u2019s missives. Markets took some notice, however: benchmark crude prices wavered, with West Texas Intermediate dipping towards US$67 on Monday. But by the end of the day, it had regained all it had lost and then some, closing north of US$68.<\/p>\n
In all, not much of a story, as the recent oil rally still looks intact. But Trump\u2019s tweet remains illustrative by reflection \u2014 and shows just how resilient oil prices might be, and at least in part thanks to Trump himself.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s not just because the thinking behind the tweet seems odd. What could he possibly mean by saying OPEC is \u201cat it again\u201d? Perhaps he should look up \u201ccartel\u201d \u2014 keeping prices artificially high is pretty much what OPEC is all about. As well, the organization has been open about the production limits its members (along with non-OPEC member Russia) agreed back in 2016. And they\u2019ve been in place for more than a year.<\/p>\n
No doubt, those limits have helped the oil price recovery, which has seen WTI gain nearly US$25 a barrel since last June. But so have a firmer footing for global growth and expectations of rising demand. It\u2019s not all OPEC, and it\u2019s not all bad.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, the rally has made U.S. gasoline prices soar, to above US$3 a gallon. Some commentators believe that may be the real target of Trump\u2019s tweet; after all, summer driving season and fall elections are coming up. Yet that raises something of a logical problem. Even leaving aside the fact American consumers pay less for gasoline than those in any other developed country (25 cents US less than Canadians, and 90 cents less than Brits), there\u2019s the inconvenient truth that one of the major factors propping up oil prices is U.S. foreign policy.<\/p>\n