{"id":4717,"date":"2018-04-10T18:09:42","date_gmt":"2018-04-10T22:09:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/?p=1572832"},"modified":"2018-04-10T18:09:42","modified_gmt":"2018-04-10T22:09:42","slug":"subscriber-surge-may-be-tough-act-to-follow-for-wireless-giants","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/2018\/04\/10\/subscriber-surge-may-be-tough-act-to-follow-for-wireless-giants\/","title":{"rendered":"Subscriber surge may be tough act to follow for wireless giants"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Canada\u2019s wireless industry appears relatively calm after a storm of promotions late last year, but the unprecedented data deals may have lingering effects on revenue growth at the country&#8217;s communications giants.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts predict BCE Inc., Rogers Communications Inc. and Telus Corp. will report stable first quarters \u2014 it\u2019s a traditionally slow period for the industry \u2014 but they\u2019ll closely watch for deceleration in money earned from each subscriber.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe do expect that wireless results could show a slight downturn in terms of average revenue per user growth as some of the promotional offers in the fourth quarter and strong previous performance pressure year-over-year growth rates,\u201d Desjardins analyst Maher Yaghi noted to clients this week.<\/p>\n<p>The pressure stems from heavy discounts over five days during the holiday shopping rush, when the Big Three all offered a plan with 10 gigabytes for $60 per month. The deals matched similar plans from Shaw Communications Inc.\u2019s Freedom Mobile, which started selling the iPhone for the first time in December. Low price plans can dampen revenue growth over time because consumers tend to be locked in to two-year contracts.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"related_links\">\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/telecom\/bell-telus-rack-up-best-wireless-performance-in-years-on-holiday-rush-for-60-data-deals\">Bell big winner of holiday sweepstakes<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/telecom\/technical-glitch-costs-rogers-35000-subscribers-amid-concerns-over-freedom-mobiles-data-deals\">Technical glitch costs Rogers 35,000 subscribers in quarter with unprecedented data deals<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/business.financialpost.com\/technology\/telecoms-overhaul-data-systems-to-comply-with-new-accounting-rules\">Telecoms overhaul data systems to comply with new accounting rules<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Despite the heightened competition, average revenue per user grew last quarter for the Big Three, which collectively added 305,000 more subscribers in 2017 than the year prior. Executives credited high demand for mobile data for the increased revenue.<\/p>\n<p>Heavily discounted plans disappeared in the New Year, but analysts are monitoring Shaw\u2019s results to see how much of an impact it may have as a fourth competitor in the major markets of Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario.<\/p>\n<p>Yaghi expects Shaw to have a \u201cmeasurable increase\u201d in customer loading given its iPhone offering and marketing push, although he noted it will take more time to see whether the results are sustainable.<\/p>\n<p>RBC Capital Markets analyst Drew McReynolds expects \u201cincremental wireless traction\u201d from Shaw, but believes the large operators will be able to absorb the impact given the healthy level of activity in the industry.<\/p>\n<p>That could mean higher cell phone bills for customers. Core price increases at the large operators are expected to ease slowing growth in average revenue per user, McReynolds said in a research note this week.<\/p>\n<p>Barclays analyst Phillip Huang said he\u2019s less concerned about Shaw\u2019s direct impact on the Big Three given its \u201cstill nascent network and limited distribution.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHowever, we believe heightened wireless competition is inevitable this year,\u201d Huang noted. \u201cThe probability of the Big Three responding with promos that escalate across the major markets (like the one in December) remains a concern for us into the more active quarters later in the year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Analysts also expect some disorder in the quarter given the adoption of new accounting rules. Under IFRS 15, wireless carriers must account for smartphone revenue immediately instead of spreading it out over a two-year contract. This will decrease average revenue per user and increase equipment revenue. In theory this shouldn\u2019t affect value because the same amount of money changes hands, but it could give the impression companies are earning less each month.<\/p>\n<p>Shaw is scheduled to report its results on Thursday, Rogers next week and Bell and Telus in early May.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Low price plans can dampen revenue growth over time because consumers tend to be locked in two-year contracts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":578,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4717"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/578"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4717"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4717\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4719,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4717\/revisions\/4719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}