Arlington, VA (Feb. 25, 2026) \u2013 Global stability is entering a new phase \u2013 one defined not by clear lines of conflict, but by the ambiguous, deniable and strategically choreographed tactics that sit between peace and war \u2013 known as \u2018gray-zone aggression\u2019. That\u2019s the key finding of a new report from The Willis Research Network and Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council.<\/p>\n
Gray-zone aggression has rapidly evolved into a material threat for businesses; disrupting markets, undermining confidence and creating political leverage. The report, titled \u201cHidden threats, real impacts: gray-zone aggression\u201d, <\/em>highlights that five years ago, this challenge barely registered on corporate risk radars and was largely viewed as confined to the aviation and shipping sectors. Today, it is shaping geopolitical risk appetite, testing insurance policy wordings and the resilience strategies of every major sector. In this volatile environment, the private sector is no longer a bystander, the report says. Executives need to anticipate, adapt and collaborate to strengthen corporate defences and maintain business continuity.<\/p>\n The report highlights further findings for risk and insurance leaders:<\/p>\n Sam Wilkin, Director of Political Risk Analytics at Willis, said: \u201cOur societies are only as resilient to gray-zone attacks as their weakest link. The corporate sector must not be that weak link. The past few months of gray-zone attacks in Europe have shown us that strategic foresight, operational readiness and specialty solutions designed to address ambiguity must be baked into corporate risk management programs across business sectors. I hope companies will use the scenarios to challenge traditional boundaries of risk ownership and identify unexpected connections between risks.\u201d<\/p>\n Elisabeth Braw, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council, said: \u201cToday\u2019s gray-zone tactics exploit the way our economies are connected \u2013 and that puts the private sector directly in the line of fire. Hostile countries are targeting companies precisely because doing so creates disruption and uncertainty while at the same time having two distinct advantages: plausible deniability and minimal risk of retaliation. This research makes clear that treating gray-zone aggression as a temporary nuisance is a mistake. Organisations that fail to recognise gray-zone activity as a material business risk will find themselves reacting too late, with real consequences for business operations, confidence and resilience.\u201d<\/p>\n Download the report: Hidden threats, real impacts: gray-zone aggression<\/strong><\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n Gray-zone aggression has surged in recent years, revealing a critical trend: states engaging in this form of coercion are constantly innovating \u2013 making defence a moving target. Unlike traditional military aggression, gray-zone tactics exploit economic, technological, and reputational vulnerabilities. This means resilience cannot rest solely with governments; the private sector is increasingly in the crosshairs.<\/p>\n Businesses are becoming more concerned about these risks, yet awareness remains low. Understanding what gray-zone aggression is \u2013 and how such events might unfold \u2013 is essential. Willis Research Network partner Elisabeth Braw, shares key insights and three new scenarios to help risk leaders take action in 2026.<\/p>\n Organizations must anticipate, adapt, and collaborate to strengthen their defenses and maintain continuity. In WTW\u2019s 2025 Political Risk Survey [1]<\/a><\/sup>, 77 per cent of executives interviewed expressed concern about the threat of economic retaliation as the method of gray-zone aggression of greatest concern, while 64 per cent were focused on state-sponsored cyber and 44 per cent on attacks on infrastructure. Five years earlier, gray-zone threats barely registered on corporate radars.<\/p>\n To understand gray-zone aggression as an emerging driver of geopolitical risk, the Willis Research Network, have partnered with Elisabeth Braw since 2019 to explore the topic and identify what global businesses can do to manage these threats proactively.<\/p>\n The findings from these discussions are shared in a report<\/a> providing:<\/p>\n Gray\u2011zone aggression is an enterprise\u2011level risk that spans departmental responsibilities; if there are knowledge gaps in the answers to those diagnostic questions, risk and strategy will need to be aligned to act.<\/p>\n To learn more, download the full report: Hidden threats, real impacts: gray-zone aggression<\/a><\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n At WTW (NASDAQ: WLTW)<\/em>, we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximize performance. Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success\u2014and provide perspective that moves you. For more information, visit www.wtwco.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n
Hidden threats, real impacts: gray-zone aggression<\/h3>\n
Amid a surge in gray-zone aggression acts, WRN partner Elisabeth Braw shares key insights and three scenarios to help risk leaders take action in 2026.<\/em><\/h4>\n
\n
Key findings for risk and insurance leaders<\/h3>\n
\n
About WTW<\/b><\/h4>\n