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<\/div>\nThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Climate Prediction Center says there is a 60% chance that a weak La Ni\u00f1a event will develop this autumn and could last until March.<\/p>\n
La Ni\u00f1a is part of a natural climate cycle that can cause extreme weather across the planet \u2014 and its effects vary from place to place.<\/p>\n
Although there is no guarantee how this La Ni\u00f1a will play out, there are some general trends. Experts say northern parts of South America could see more rain than usual. Southern regions of the U.S. and parts of Mexico could be drier than average. The northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada could be wetter than average.<\/p>\n
La Ni\u00f1a is the cool phase of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation, a naturally occurring global climate pattern that involves changes in wind and ocean temperatures in the Pacific and can cause extreme weather across the planet.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o is the warm phase and happens when trade winds that typically blow across the Pacific toward Asia weaken, allowing warm ocean waters to pile up along the western edge of South America. But during La Nina, the trade winds intensify and cold water from the depths of the sea rises up, resulting in cooler than average ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific.<\/p>\n
These cold ocean temperatures and changes in the atmosphere affect the position of the jet stream \u2014 a narrow band of fast-moving air flowing from west to east around the planet \u2014 by bumping it northward. The jet stream sits over the ocean and can tap into its moisture, influence the path storms take and boost precipitation.<\/p>\n
Just recently Earth experienced a \u201ctriple-dip\u201d La Ni\u00f1a event from 2020 to 2023. \u201cWe had three back to back winters where we had La Nina conditions, which was unusual because the only other case of that happening was back in 1973 to 1976,\u201d said Michelle L\u2019Heureux, a climate scientist at NOAA. L\u2019Heureux said that La Nina\u2019s tend to last longer and be more recurrent than El Nino events.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s unusual although it\u2019s not unprecedented,\u201d said Ben Cook, climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies affiliated with Columbia University, about the forecast for a possible La Nina this year.<\/p>\n
Cook noted that the frequency of La Ni\u00f1a events can be stressful for regions that have been dealing with drought lately, such as East Africa. \u201cIf we\u2019re moving into another La Nina event, it means kind of a continuation of those really bad conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n
La Ni\u00f1a Weather Impacts<\/strong><\/p>\n The influence La Ni\u00f1a has on the weather varies based on location and the season, said L\u2019Heureux. Parts of South America, such as eastern Argentina, can be drier than average while Colombia, Venezuela and northern parts of Brazil can be wetter than normal.<\/p>\n \u201cIt depends exactly where you are. Part of that is because there\u2019s a monsoon cycle, wet and dry season, that goes through Central America and South America, so La Ni\u00f1a is basically modifying the intensity and placement of those monsoon cycles,\u201d explained L\u2019Heureux.<\/p>\n In the U.S., the Northeast and Ohio Valley typically see wetter than normal conditions with an active storm track due to the position of the jet stream, said Samantha Borisoff, climate scientist at NOAA\u2019s Northeast Regional Climate Center based at Cornell University.<\/p>\n The waviness of the jet stream can also cause more frequent cold outbreaks, particularly in the central U.S. Borisoff said snowfall is difficult to predict and highly dependent on the storm and path it takes, but noted that New England, New York and the Great Lakes region tend to be snowier during La Nina winters, but that is never a guarantee. The southern and southeastern regions of the U.S. are farther away from the active storm track and tend to be drier and warmer than normal.<\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a, El Nino And Climate Change<\/strong><\/p>\n Scientists say the link between climate change and La Ni\u00f1a and El Ni\u00f1o is not entirely clear.<\/p>\n Paul Roundy, climate scientist at the University at Albany, said climate models tend to indicate more frequent El Ninos and less frequent La Ninas, but not all models agree. Computer models also struggle to separate normal variation in the El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a phases from climate change\u2019s warming influence on the oceans and atmosphere.<\/p>\n \u201cI would not infer from that that climate change isn\u2019t actually causing more El Ni\u00f1o emergence,\u201d Roundy said. \u201cIt\u2019s just that nature itself has such strong swings on its own. So we can get multiple La Nina events, and maybe in 40 or 50 years we\u2019ll be seeing the opposite.\u201d<\/p>\n The Associated Press\u2019 climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP\u2019s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.<\/em><\/p>\n Was this article valuable?<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n