{"id":22635,"date":"2024-10-18T21:38:33","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T21:38:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thinkadvisor.com\/2024\/10\/18\/bob-doll-buy-high-sell-higher-in-this-risky-market\/"},"modified":"2024-10-18T21:38:33","modified_gmt":"2024-10-18T21:38:33","slug":"bob-doll-buy-high-sell-higher-in-this-risky-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/2024\/10\/18\/bob-doll-buy-high-sell-higher-in-this-risky-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Bob Doll: ‘Buy High, Sell Higher’ in This Risky Market"},"content":{"rendered":"
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“We might get one in 2025, but a year ago we said we might get one in 2024,” so either it’s way too early or “it ain’t going to happen. We’ll see,” he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The unemployment rate is rising and payroll growth slowing, Doll noted, saying it’s possible that unemployment could hit 4.5% at year-end.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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“What the Fed has done, what the economy is doing, what consumers and businesses are doing will tell us” whether the slowdown is real and will lead to a soft perfect landing or a bumpier one, he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Possible New Inflation Floor<\/h2>\n

Doll also had predicted that the 2% to 3% inflation seen in the 2010s will become the 2% to 3% floor for the 2020s.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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“Our argument is the 2% Fed (inflation) target is going to be at least elusive. We’re not going to get there. Our longer-term view is inflation’s going to be closer to 3 (%) for this decade, having been closer to 2 the last decade, which is a big difference when you look at valuation for, obviously, stocks and bonds, among other things,” he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Weaker Earnings?<\/h2>\n

Crossmark is also doubtful about expectations for double-digit percentage earnings growth heading into 2025, Doll said, explaining that such increases in the United States typically follow recessions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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When price-to-earnings ratios are over 20, as they are now, “forward, one-, three-, five- and 10-year returns are at best mid-single digits, which is our best guess for the stock market over the next five to 10 years,” the CIO said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Doll noted that the market has broadened beyond “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stock leadership, with the group, minus Tesla, basically flat in the third quarter, trailing the S&P 500, which was up 6%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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“So the tenor of the market has certainly changed,” he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Magnificent Seven did account for 44% of the S&P 500\u2032s year-to-date return at Sept. 30, Crossmark noted.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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What to Do?<\/h2>\n

In a market, economy and geopolitical environment with many troubling and reassuring signs, Doll suggested that investors:<\/p>\n

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  • Expect choppy markets, buying on dips and trimming in rallies.<\/li>\n
  • Focus on earnings growth and free cash flow, not P\/E expansion.<\/li>\n
  • Own some quality fixed income.<\/li>\n
  • Diversify across asset classes and geographies, including more non-U.S. securities.<\/li>\n
  • Own high-quality value and less expensive growth.<\/li>\n
  • Consider an absolute return strategy to complement market exposures.<\/li>\n
  • Be prepared to step up if there are significant weakness.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Image: Chris Nicholls\/ALM; Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    “We might get one in 2025, but a year ago we said we might get one in 2024,” so either it’s way too early or “it ain’t going to happen. We’ll see,” he said....<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[1],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/bob-doll-buy-high-sell-higher-in-this-risky-market.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22635"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22635\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}