{"id":21703,"date":"2024-04-15T21:57:47","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T21:57:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/?p=80494"},"modified":"2024-04-15T21:57:47","modified_gmt":"2024-04-15T21:57:47","slug":"canadian-economy-to-see-modest-growth-in-first-half-of-2024-cfib-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/2024\/04\/15\/canadian-economy-to-see-modest-growth-in-first-half-of-2024-cfib-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian economy to see modest growth in first half of 2024: CFIB forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) <em>Main Street Quarterly<\/em> report<\/h3>\n<p>Toronto, ON (Apr. 12, 2024) \u2013 The Canadian economy is expected to see positive growth in Q1 and Q2 2024, according to the latest <em>Main Street Quarterly<\/em> report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).<\/p>\n<p>Key highlights of the Main Street Quarterly report for Q1 2024:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>CFIB\u2019s <strong>forecasts<\/strong> in partnership with AppEco suggest the Canadian economy rebounded to 0.8% in Q1 2024 and will grow to 0.9% in the second quarter on a year-to-year basis. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, both total (2.8%) and excluding food and energy (2.9%), continued its downward trend in Q1 and this trend is expected to persist in Q2. Driven by low long-term small business confidence, private investment contracted for the third consecutive quarter in Q1. It\u2019s expected to keep declining in Q2, although at a slower pace.<\/li>\n<li>The national <strong>private sector job vacancy rate <\/strong>declined to 3.5% in Q1. This represents 496,700 unfilled positions.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong>special analysis on insufficient demand<\/strong> this quarter shows that it is at the highest level since the pandemic, affecting half of SMEs. Businesses facing a lack of demand are also more cautious with their price increase plans.<\/li>\n<li>The quarterly <strong>sectoral profile of transportation businesses<\/strong>, which are facing labour shortages and various cost constraints, reveals they are experiencing the highest exit rate in the last 10 years, while entries on the market are stagnant. The long-term confidence level in the industry is also reaching its lowest level since the pandemic.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Conclusions by CFIB\u2019s chief economist and vice-president of research, Simon Gaudreault:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>All eyes were on the Bank of Canada this week ahead of its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. As widely expected, the Bank took a wait-and-see approach for a sixth consecutive time and didn\u2019t announce any rate cuts. With more signals showing that inflation is generally getting under control, there\u2019s bigger pressure on the Bank to lower rates in the near term. The Bank\u2019s restrictive policy is not going to help SMEs in the next few months as they\u2019re continuing to face headwinds as shown by a decrease in investment and a high level of insufficient demand.<\/li>\n<li>Our forecasts suggest that the economy will see positive growth in early 2024. However, business owners remain modestly optimistic about the future of their business and will be watching the upcoming federal budget closely for any sign of meaningful cost relief, as well as the start of widely anticipated interest rate cuts in the upcoming months that could improve sales and lower financing costs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Read the full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfib-fcei.ca\/en\/research-economic-analysis\/main-street-quarterly\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">Main Street Quarterly<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"smallhead\"><b>About AppEco<\/b><\/h4>\n<p><span id=\"hs_cos_wrapper_post_body\" class=\"hs_cos_wrapper hs_cos_wrapper_meta_field hs_cos_wrapper_type_rich_text\" data-hs-cos-general-type=\"meta_field\" data-hs-cos-type=\"rich_text\">AppEco is a consulting firm specializing in economic and strategic analysis. It possesses in-depth technical expertise and delivers first-class services in applied economics: economic impact studies, surveys and polls, cost-benefit analyses, modelling, econometrics, pricing, etc. Its mission is to provide useful services that contribute to economic growth and the success of clients\u2019 projects. AppEco works with firms of all sizes, from small to multinationals, as well as governments and non-profit organizations<\/span>.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"smallhead\"><b>About CFIB<\/b><\/h4>\n<p>The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) is Canada\u2019s largest association of small and medium-sized businesses with 97,000 members across every industry and region. CFIB is dedicated to increasing business owners\u2019 chances of success by driving policy change at all levels of government, providing expert advice and tools, and negotiating exclusive savings. Learn more at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfib-fcei.ca\/en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">cfib.ca<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"referencetext\"><em>Source: Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Tags: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/tag\/cfib\/\" rel=\"tag\">Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB)<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/tag\/market-dynamics\/\" rel=\"tag\">market dynamics<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) Main Street Quarterly report Toronto, ON (Apr. 12, 2024) \u2013 The Canadian economy is expected to see positive growth in Q1 and Q2 2024, according to the latest&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[1],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21703"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21703"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21703\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}