{"id":20048,"date":"2020-10-26T14:20:48","date_gmt":"2020-10-26T18:20:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/?p=68581"},"modified":"2020-10-26T14:20:48","modified_gmt":"2020-10-26T18:20:48","slug":"u-s-election-outcome-holds-implications-for-canadas-economy-rsm-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/2020\/10\/26\/u-s-election-outcome-holds-implications-for-canadas-economy-rsm-canada\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Election Outcome Holds Implications For Canada\u2019s Economy: RSM Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><strong>Analysis of policies and data from both candidates suggests that a victory for either could pose risks for Canada\u2019s economy<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Canada\u2019s increasing economic dependence on the U.S. also a large factor in any potential headwinds<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>COVID-19: Canadian economic growth expected to be gradual, with economy projected to contract 5.5 per cent in 2020, followed by a 6 per cent expansion in 2021<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Consumer sector has been pivotal to Canada\u2019s economic recovery process to date, while labour and manufacturing are still in shock<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Toronto, ON (Oct. 23, 2020) \u2013 RSM Canada, the leading global provider of audit, tax and consulting services focused on middle market businesses, is pleased to announce the launch of its third 2020 issue of \u201cThe Real Economy: Canada,\u201d a quarterly report that provides Canadian businesses with economic analysis and insights into factors driving growth, or economic headwinds, in Canada\u2019s middle market.<\/p>\n<p>With the U.S. presidential election taking place in just a matter of weeks, and Canada looking to navigate a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest <i>Real Economy: Canada<\/i> report shines a light on how the election outcome, combined with Canada\u2019s reliance on the U.S. economy, might alter Canada\u2019s recovery and longer-term outlook.<\/p>\n<p>This report also looks at how Canadian industries have fared since the onset of the pandemic and explores measures the federal government and other authorities can take as the recovery process continues.<\/p>\n<p>Key findings in this quarter\u2019s report include:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><b>Recovery for both Canadian and U.S. economies are closely intertwined<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li>Growing dependence on the U.S. due to CUSMA and deteriorating relationship with China has hampered Canada\u2019s ability to chart its own economic course.<\/li>\n<li>Data shows total trade between Canada-China has trended downward since the beginning of the U.S.-China Trade War in 2018. In comparison, total trade between Canada and the United States increased during this period.<\/li>\n<li>Current administration\u2019s struggles to cap COVID-19 cases suggest a Trump re-election would present economic risks to Canada due to close economic ties.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>\u2018America first\u2019 policies likely to continue, regardless of election outcome<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li>Biden\u2019s proposed \u2018Made in America\u2019 tax incentive, which offers tax credits for companies in the U.S. that expand employment and salaries domestically, could potentially discourage future Canadian market expansion.<\/li>\n<li>Trump\u2019s protectionist tendencies would indicate Canada may see further headwinds with its largest trading partner if he\u2019s re-elected.<\/li>\n<li>Biden\u2019s willingness to adopt Trump\u2019s tough stance on China if elected suggests Canada will likely continue to be negatively affected by U.S.-China trade relations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>U.S. election adds to the uncertainty of Canada\u2019s oil &amp; gas sector<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li>Canadian oil pricing will be hit hard if Biden follows through on his campaign promise to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, a critical venture for Western Canada oil producers that would provide direct access to the Gulf Coast refineries and world markets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>The consumer sector accounts for most of Canada\u2019s growth during recovery process<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li>Consumer confidence\u2019s summer comeback have influenced forecasts of a V-shaped GDP recovery in the coming quarters and sustained growth into 2022.<\/li>\n<li>However, the recent resurgence of new infections has dealt a blow to recovery and consumer expectations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>Labour market turnaround will be critical to continued economic progress, while turbulent times remain ahead for manufacturing sector<\/b>\n<ul>\n<li>The service sector, which now employs nearly 80 per cent of the total labour force, lost 850,000 jobs since the start of the pandemic.<\/li>\n<li>Danger of lingering damage to labour force through loss of skills &amp; productivity, and the ability of an idle labour force to keep up with the acceleration in technological changes.<\/li>\n<li>New manufacturing orders 11 per cent below their pre-crisis peak and roughly 5 per cent less than last year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u201cDespite a rocky relationship between Canada and the current U.S. administration in recent years, it\u2019s clear that a victory for either Trump or Biden would pose risks to Canada\u2019s economy,\u201d says Alex Kotsopoulos, vice president, projects and economics with RSM Canada. \u201cThe issue is that Canada has become increasingly dependent on its neighbour south of the border, and when you combine this with the strong \u2018America First\u2019 policies of both presidential candidates, Canada will feel the brunt of those decisions. Therefore, it\u2019ll be important for the Canadian government to proactively engage with the new administration to shore up trade and supply chains, which will be vital in the Canada\u2019s own recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP, added: \u201cWhen looking at Canada\u2019s economic recovery data from the pandemic so far, it\u2019s clear that the resurgence of Canada\u2019s consumer sector has led the charge after a lengthy shutdown. However, to achieve stronger growth the labour force and industrial sector will be critical pieces of the puzzle, and while there is no meaningful or complete recovery until there is a vaccine, further expansion of the real economy by fiscal and monetary authorities will be important to keep recovery moving in the right direction.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For more information, or to download the report, visit RSM Canada\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/rsmcanada.com\/our-insights\/the-real-economy\/the-real-economy-canada-volume-7.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\"><strong><em>The Real Economy: <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>Canada<\/em><\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"smallhead\"><b>About RSM<\/b><\/h4>\n<p>RSM\u2019s purpose is to deliver the power of being understood to our clients, colleagues and communities through world-class audit, tax and consulting services focused on middle market businesses. The clients we serve are the engine of global commerce and economic growth, and we are focused on developing leading professionals and services to meet their evolving needs in today\u2019s ever-changing business environment.<\/p>\n<p>RSM Canada LLP provides public accounting services and is the Canadian member firm of RSM International, a global network of independent audit, tax and consulting firms with more than 43,000 people in 120 countries. RSM Alberta LLP is a limited liability partnership and independent legal entity that provides public accounting services. RSM Canada Consulting LP provides consulting services and is an affiliate of RSM US LLP, a member firm of RSM International. For more information visit <a href=\"https:\/\/rsmcanada.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">rsmcanada.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"referencetext\"><i>SOURCE: RSM Canada<\/i><\/p>\n<p> Tags: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/tag\/coronavirus\/\" rel=\"tag\">coronavirus<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/tag\/epidemic\/\" rel=\"tag\">epidemic<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/tag\/market-dynamics\/\" rel=\"tag\">market dynamics<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/tag\/outlook-predictions\/\" rel=\"tag\">outlook \/ predictions<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/tag\/rsm\/\" rel=\"tag\">RSM<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/tag\/united-states\/\" rel=\"tag\">United States (USA)<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.insurance-canada.ca\/2020\/10\/26\/rsm-us-election-outcome-implications-economy\/\">Read the original article at Insurance-Canada.ca <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analysis of policies and data from both candidates suggests that a victory for either could pose risks for Canada\u2019s economy Canada\u2019s increasing economic dependence on the U.S. also a large factor in any potential&#46;&#46;&#46;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":578,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20048"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/578"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20048\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.lifeinsurance-orleans.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}